Blog Archive

Thursday, September 21, 2023

Is There a Solution?

          Mandatory Bonuses to Employees     

1. Issue national corporate charters to the largest corporations with more than 5,000 employees.
2. Mandate annual bonuses to all employees earning less than $70,000/year. 

The largest U.S. corporations have allocated 96% of their profits to shareholders (owners) through stock buybacks and dividend outlays over the ten year period 2012 to 2021, and even since 2003 shows the research of William Lazonick. Wages for 80% of all workers have not grown since 1969. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows wages for 80% of workers are no higher since 55 years ago, while the "Real" (inflation adjusted) per capita income has grown by 181%, nearly tripling. The result is stifling inequality, 41% of Americans are either poor or struggling with expenses. RealTime Inequality documents an income shift of 15.4% of total national income (from 37.7% to 53.1%) going in favor of the top-earning 10%. (See my previous posting.) Restoring the income distribution profile of 1976 would add between $27,000 to $30,000 to 90% of all households and families, all who earn less than $200,000 per year. 

The big picture: income for all triples, but for 80% of workers income stays flat; 41% of Americans live in poverty or hardship. If we had the income distribution of 1976, then 90% of households (all with annual incomes below $200,000) would all have about $30,000 more income, and poverty would be eliminated. About $3.4 trillion of income would be shifted back to the lower 90% of households. Get the big picture. 

Another proof of the egregious maldistribution is the case of wealth. RealTime Inequality (dot org) also shows the track of wealth growth from 1976 to the present. The top 14,300 tax-payers (0.01%) in 2023 own an average of $578 million; the lower-saving half, 108,000,000 tax-payers, own an average of $9,000. Over 47 years, from 1976 to 2023, the top group saw their total savings grow from $30 million to $578 million (average), by a multiple of 19 times. The lower earning half, 50%, grew their savings by 3 times, and the group between 50% and 90% also grew their savings by 3 times. The lower 50% gained $6,500 more wealth, the top 0.01% group gained $548,000,000. I say the economy is broken. The total national income, $22.713 trillion (see here page 10) divided evenly among 133 million U.S. households comes to an average household income of $170,000 -- yet half have incomes below $80,000; the lower half average is below $40,000. This badly performing system causes a lot of pain that could be fixed with radical reform that is very possible.  

The economy has egregious maldistribution. In the face of this, what can we do? Labor union power is one solution; I look for the PRO Act, the Reward Work ActSectoral Bargaining, and Full Employment to restore widespread prosperity to American society that has been lost since the 1970s. I have to remind myself of other methods: the creation of cooperative enterprises, the advancement of profit sharing in large corporations, and increasing the Earned Income Tax Credit and the national  minimum wage (see below). I have The New Systems Reader on the shelf for tomorrow's reading list. Maybe that covers all the bases. But the mandatory yearly bonus at large corporations is also a viable instrument for raising family incomes.The economy belongs to the people, to us, the community, to all workers and families, if we will demand our ownership.      

The largest corporations would be required to pay a yearly bonus out of total pre-tax profits. There are more than 2,000 giant corporations in the U.S. who employ more than 5,000 workers; their average number of employees is over 20,000. More than 40 million workers comprise this group, over a quarter of all workers in the U.S. (see Lazonick, p. 6). To cite another essay, Lazonick states that over 10 years, 2012 - 2021, the largest 474  corporations "funneled $5.7 trillion into the stock market as buybacks, equal to 55% of their combined net income, and paid $4.2 trillion to shareholders as dividends, another 41% of net income."  Simplified, 96% of their net income was dispersed, about $9.9 trillion over ten years. Pre-tax profits for all "nonfinancial corporations" in Q4 2021 amounted to $1.981 trillion. Roughly half of those profits went to the largest 500 corporations. (See Fed's Flow of Funds, page 10) Christian Weller supplies this graph for a clear understanding: 

If half that $9.9 trillion went to around 40 million workers, about 40% of full-time employees, each would receive approximately $12,000 more income each year. These firms would be required to register with a national corporate registry and pay a portion of profits, up to 50%, to workers earning below 150% of the median annual worker income. As the median annual worker's income in 2022 was $40,847, 150% is $61,270. In 2022 around two thirds of workers (108 million) earned less than $60,000. Why isn't the median household income (around $80,000) closer or even equal to the average ($170,000)? Our condition is the reverse of democracy. We could also mandate a minimum wage for workers at these giant companies at about $22 per hour, indexed to inflation. Such a wage hike has been proposed in New York state. The hike would raise incomes by $3,307 for 32% of New York workers. This plan I present is called a prototype, not a finished plan, but the reader gets the general idea. As I show below, these "domestic nonfinacial corporations" have doubled their pre-tax profits in the last four years. 



The chart above comes from BEA.gov, Table 6.16.D, nonfinancial corporation pre-tax profits rising from $1,332 billion in Q4 2019 to $2,694 billion in Q4 2023, 4 years, a gain of 102.2%. Adjusting for inflation it's a gain of 69.4%. Inflation increased by 19.4%. Profits increased 3 times faster than inflation. "Profit Inflation Is Real" is the title of Servaas Storm's essay. There are many others in agreement.(here and here

Mandatory employee bonuses is my quick solution to the gross malfunction and inequality plaguing the U.S. economy. What follows is a lengthened comment I left at an article by William Lazonick, "The Scourge of Corporate Financialization". The target is to raise the incomes of lowest paid workers. I suggest the reader go to RealTime Inequality, adjust the graphs for "factor income" and "working age adults". There you'll see the average annual income for the lower 50% is $25,200. The average for the top 10% is 18 times higher, $448K. This is harmful for the economy and society. This low-earning half desperately needs a raise, and the nation can easily afford to make it happen. The minimum wage hike to $22 an hour would be major, and the bonus would bring their incomes more in line with their contribution. The magazine In These Times has an article on this topic, several by Colleen Boyle. Walmart also has received critical reporting on its emphasis on low-pay but very high profits going to shareholders. I estimate that each Walmart employee in the U.S. generates over $62,000 in profits, but the half of all Walmart workers received annually less than $27,136 states this report, page 13. 

For fuller details see the paragraph almost at the bottom of this essay with this heading:
William Lazonick's Research on Corporate Profits and Greed      

Walmart had a CEO to worker pay ratio of 931 to 1, and each of their workers could have had a $6,600 pay increase if the retailer, instead of buying back stock, had delivered a raise to each worker, who earned at the median $27,136 per year, or $15.96 per hour. A worker in Louisville, Kentucky, with a wife and 2 children pays $1,052 per month rent. If he is the median paid Walmart worker, his income is $2,261/month. After paying rent, he or she might have $1,200 for all other expenses. The Economic Policy Institute estimates this 4 person family in Louisville needs $7,756/month ($93,072/year) to afford a moderate life style, not $2,260/month. This four person family needs $93,072/year. (The average household income in the U.S. is $170,000/year.) Two workers at a lousy paying corporation would still find themselves about $3,000 per month short (or about $36,000/year more, which is about $17.00 more per hour) "in order to attain a modest yet adequate standard of living." Or, to make it clearer, 2 workers earning $27,136/year, with a combined income of $54,272, still need about $40,000 more per year. And still their income would be $77,000 less than the average household income for all, $170,000. It's rather bleak, isn't it? -- See the Economic Policy Institute's Family Budget Calculator.   

Lousy Pay Is Endemic in Large Corporations  

The study Executive Excess shows the lousy pay from the 100 most-lousy paying large corporations in the S&P 500. Its #1 finding: 

1. The CEO-worker pay gap at the Low-Wage 100 averaged 603 to 1 in 2022

The lousiest paying large corporations pay workers as little as they can. Their executives make 603 times their middle paid workers, states the reporting from Executive Excess. From page 5: "Last year, median worker pay at these Low-Wage 100 companies averaged $31,672, and the gap between CEO and median worker pay at these enterprises averaged 603 to 1." That would equal $15.22 per hour for a full-time worker. At Lowe's hardware, the giant mega-hardware, it's median worker earns $29,384, which is $14.12 per hour for a full-time worker. Of course, the median earning Lowe worker is not full-time. The "average" household income in the U.S. is $170,000 per year. I show more about this later. "Can we afford higher wages?" strikes me as an ignorant question. 

Another example, The Dollar Tree: 

"Dollar Tree: CEO Michael Witynski reaped the biggest stock gain in the Low-Wage 100. During his three year stint before resigning in early 2023, his personal stock holdings ballooned 2,393 percent to $30.5 million. Dollar Tree’s median pay fell 4.4 percent to just $14,702 in the same time period, while the retailers’ customers saw an increase in most products from $1 to $1.25. The retailer has spent over $2 billion on buybacks since 2020."  

The Average Household Income in 2024 ---  $170,000 per year  

I walked today around the little neighborhood where I live in Mariposa, California. My friend and neighbor with two chihuahua dogs walked with me and got me talking about the economy. I mentioned that the average household income in the U.S. is $170,000. She didn't believe me, so I explained, and she still had a hard time believing. This paragraph is an aside -- I'm adding it much after the other parts. The theme is "What is the average household income in 2024?" The answer: $170,000. Let me explain: four sources confirm this number. How many households in the U.S. is answered by the U.S. Census: 131,434,000 in 2023. What's the total income? The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, Overview, states it's $19.926 trillion (see page 39). The Federal Reserve's report Flow of Funds says it's $22.5121 trillion (see page 10). The Bureau of Economic Analysis says $23.289 trillion (see bea.gov, Interactive Table 2.1). The "average household income" answer is either $151,604, or $171,280, or $177,191, respectively. Let's try RealTime Inequality; their answer is $22.2 trillion total, yielding an average of $168,906. The average for the lower-earning 50% of households is $36,546 (says dqydj.com, household income by percentile calculator). The average for all households, $170K, is about five times the average of the lower half's average, $36K. This paragraph may read like over-kill, but I have a hunch my neighbor is like most people -- totally ignorant and unbelieving, but willing to listen and learn. Her two dogs enjoyed the other dogs along the way, and returned home very happy. Change happens gradually, but it needs conversation and actual facts. I hope everyone will have this conversation, and act on it.  

But first -- My May, 2023, essay says that 90% of U.S. household earn less than $200,000 per year (117 million out of 130 million), and all 90% could/would have $29,000 more income each year if we had the income distribution ratios of 1976, according to data from RealTime Inequality. This is an important claim; in the near past we had a much more equitable economy; it is possible to enrich everyone; we did it before. I load so much data and information into these essays, I hope readers take away at least one thought. Take your choice. You don't have to understand everything, just understand we have fixable inequality. It depends on a mass public understanding, and then voting for common sense equality of income and wealth.     ------- Read on  -----

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We might require the largest corporations to share 50% of profits in bonuses to employees. This sharing of profits would raise incomes considerably. This would be a statutory requirement for corporate licenses, only applied to companies with more than 2,000 workers. Something like that. Nonfinancial domestic corporations have increased their profits by 95% since October of 2019 (from $1302 billion to $2551 billion), shows the Table 6.16D at BEA.gov, Interactive Tables. Here's the graph showing profits from 2011 to 2023 Q3:


A second, confirming report comes from the Flow of Funds report, a Federal Reserve quarterly report. It reports an increase of 91% (adjusting for inflation), (See December reports for 2019 and 2023, Table F.3, line 9). In Q3 2019 "domestic nonfinancial corporations" earned 6.0% of all income, and in Q3 2023 they earned 11.2% of all income. Adjusting for inflation the pre-tax profits of 2019 reveals the same 91% increase. (I did the inflation adjustment here.) 

Inflation has gone up 19.7% over the same four year period shows the data at BLS.gov, see CPI data. The public should be asking very hard questions about corporate price hikes. The supply chain bottleneck problems are over, we have greed in operation. It seems to me absolutely impossible to generate such huge profits during a period of very high inflation. Corporations are making a killing at the expense of all consumers. Shareholders are the wealthy minority, and they are literally killing our economy. My January, 2023, essay is all about inflation and its causes.

By my calculations the share of national income going to nonfinancial corporations pre-tax profits increased from 6.0% in 2019 to 11.2% in 2023, Q3 for both years. I calculated the figures from the Fed's Flow of Funds report, Table F.3, Lines 1 and 10, from the Dec. 2019 report and Dec. 2023 report.. The increase of $1.202 trillion in profits means every household paid an additional $9,037 to corporations for the same amount of goods. 

The Pulse Survey from the U.S. Census       

Naturally not every household could afford such a huge increase. Hardship is the result; families experience  added anxiety, worry, grief and ill-at-ease. The U.S. Census conducts a Pulse Survey almost every month, the last issue was November 2023, and they asked questions about many topics including "Spending" and "Health". When asked to rate "Difficulty paying usual household expenses over the last seven days" only 30% report no difficulty, another 30% state "a little difficult", and the last 41% report "somewhat" and "very difficult" about evenly divided. True to the United Way report, the ALICE report, 41% of U.S. households experience hardship. And the Census's Supplemental Poverty Report also reports 41% of households living with incomes less than 200 percent of the very low Official Poverty Line.

 The Poverty threshold for a family of 4 is $29,950, that doubled is $59,900, but the United Way ALICE basic survival budget requires $73,464, the M.I.T. Living Wage Calculator requires $76,814, and the EPI.org Household Budget Calculator requires $72,640 in the median cost county of Des Moines, Iowa. But in late January, 2024, the EPI re-adjusted its calculator. Now EPI reports $90,260, which is 3 times the Official Poverty Line (OPL). And the M.I.T. Living Wage Calculator shows the living wage income needed is $95,763 if both parents are working. The M.I.T. report is dated February, 2023. The Census report HINC 01 shows the median household income for a 4 person household is $117,900 in 2022. The median is nearly 4 times the Official Poverty Level of $29,900 (4 times $29,900 is $119,600). So, 52% of 4 person households live with incomes below $119,600.  

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report "Making Ends Meet"  

A short quote from the 2023 document

"More families had difficulty paying their bills, but average financial well-being was unchanged. The share of families with difficulties paying bills or expenses increased from 35.7 percent in 2022 to 37.8 percent in 2023 but is still below its 40.4 percent level in 2019."

"Looking to the future, many consumers are unprepared for an economic downturn, should one occur. If they lost their main source of income, 37 percent of households could not cover their expenses for more than a month. Half of Black and Hispanic households could not cover their expenses for more than a month."

The Supplemental Poverty Measure and the ALICE report      

The U.S. Census' Supplemental Poverty Measure for 2022 (page 13) shows that just 22% of U.S. households have incomes 4 times above the OPL using the SPM (bluish-grey strip in the chart below); 78% have incomes below 4 times OPL. So, the total living with income above 4 times is 22%, but for 4 person households it is about 50%. The four-person houehold must be doing better than the other 1 and 2 and 3 person households who have at least 78% living below the 4 times OPL level. Using the HINC-01 data, about 40% of 4 person households earn too little, not the amount the EPI or the M.I.T. studies indicate are basic floors to avoid hardship. A basic survival income of $90,260 is 24% less than what half earn, the median, for a family of four ($117,900). This shows that about 39% of 4 person households live with incomes below the basic survival budget. Looks like the ALICE report is accurate. Hardship afflicts at least 40%, more or less, of Americans, the richest nation on earth. I should analyze the 1 and 2 and 3 person households, but I don't have the patience. If I did the conclusion would be worse, not better, is my guess. Excuse me. I'm not wasting your time, I hope.  

          This is page 13 or the 2022 year Supplemental Poverty Measure, U.S. Census
 

So, we might ask "What is the average household income in 2023?" The Flow of Funds tells us the national income in Q3 2023 was $22.512 trillion, and divided evenly among 133 million households, the average is $169,000. The median income for all 133 million was $74,580 in 2022. If the average were $1000, then 50% would be earning less than $450, and their average would be around $300. We have massive and harmful inequality.    

A look at the U.S. Census Hinc 0-1 file shows the details of income distribution. But this site shows a total of $15.1 trillion as the national income, which is far short of the $22 trillion shown by the Flow of Funds or the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Furthermore, one should be sure to compare post-tax and post-transfers incomes with the same.     

Corporations have subdued wage increases, and they have also had no restraint in raising prices.The "retail trade" corporations have seen their profits grow by 153% over the four year period, Oct. 2019 to Oct. 2023. 

Retail trade profits since 2012 to Q3 2023. 

In that 4 year period inflation rose by 19.6%. The net result is the impoverishment of workers, their families and communities. Does society benefit or only the profit driven corporations? Corporations should be forced to share their profits with workers. A national corporate licensing law would effect all large, multi-state corporations employing more than 5,000 workers. There should be a flexible rate of mandatory bonus dispersal, be it 50% or 10% or between both. Workers deserve raises. 

The largest corporations are "looting" America claims professor William Lazonick. (See here and here)  Between 2017 and 2019, 111.8% of their total profits were used for shareholder dividends or stock buybacks. In other words, they took all their market profits and also borrowed additional billions, going into debt, to buyback their own shares. His 2014 article in the Harvard Business Review claims that 91% of profits since 2003 have been dispersed through the combination of buybacks and dividends.  The word 'eviscerating' captures the essence of this greed. That chart in Lazonick's recent essay, page 17, shows the growth of this process. 


Lazonick makes a strong case for ending stock buybacks in essay after essay, take a look

The "Real GDP per capita" grew by 153% between 1969 and 2023, from $26,162 to $67,039, inflation adjusted, an increase of a multiple of 2.5. The "Real disposable income per capita" grew by 2.7 times (from $18,249 to $50,438). If we multiply the $50,438 post-tax income by all 335 million American citizens, the total "disposable"  income (335M x $50,438K) should be almost $17 trillion. The "average" family of four therefore has a post-tax income of 4 times $50,438 = $201,752. But, instead, the median post-tax  income for a family of four is about $92,000 in 2022, not $201,000. The median household income of $74,582 is 45% of the average of $170,000? Inequality? Yes. The national income divided among all households in 2023 is now $170,000 per household, but half of households have incomes below $80,000, and the average for the lower half is below  $40,000, a quarter of the average for all. (See the Fed's Flow of Funds report, Dec. 2023, page 10 for national income.)

Comparing income growth with wage growth    

The graph below shows the inflation adjusted ("real") disposable personal income per capita, January 1968 to December 2023. It increased by 290%.
In stark contrast, for the same dates, the "average weekly earnings" for 80% of all workers over  the same 54 year period increases by under 2%.  

I am a bit obsessed with this piece of news. I try to repeat it over and over. The economy is broken, my friend. 
And the  hourly wage earnings increased by only 8% over 54 years (the graph at the Fed FRED web page shows numbers unadjusted for inflation, but you can do that here). 

To drive home this fact, the Realtime Inequality web page shows the income growth for adults age 20 to 64 years old from 1976 to 2023. The four groups are top 1%, the next top 90 to 99%, the 50th to 90th percentiles, and the lower-earning 50%. The EPI growth numbers are very similar:
In 1976 the income difference between the lower 50% and the top 1% was 22 times
and in 2023 it was 75 times. Even worse than what the EPI reports, as I show in the following paragraph. 

The Economic Policy Institute has tracked this problem for decades, and their report (here) shows that between 1978 and 2019 annual wage income for the lower 90% has grown by 26%, or $8,043 (from $30,880 to $38,923); (see Table 1) while wages for the top 90 to 99%% (less the top 1%) has grown by 64%, or $64,781 (from $101,220 to $166,001). And wage income for the top 1% has grown by 156%, or $466,815 (from $299,240 to $766,055).
Wages grew by     $8,043 for the lower 90%
                     by   $64,781 for the 90% to 99%
                     by $466,815 for the top 1%.
Looking closely, this shows the difference between the 90% and the 1% was 10 times in 1978 and 20 times in 2019! And a look at the Fed's FRED page shows that between those same years  the Real GDP/capita grew by 95%, almost 4 times faster than wage growth of the lower 90%. Where did the extra money go? Workers' income growth was virtually paralyzed. The page from the Job Quality Index, Buffalo, shows between 1990 and October 2023 full-time year-round nonsupervisory weekly (and yearly) wages grew by 18%. The Fed's Real GDP/capita shows a growth of 66% between Q3 1990 and Q3 2023, which is 3.6 times faster than wage growth. ___________________________

The New Gilded Age,                                                                                      a report from the Economic Policy Institute                         

Reinforcing the data supporting the extreme income distribution shift, a report from the EPI confirms in short paragraphs on page 12 of the pdf version of The New Gilded Age: 
 
"The pattern in the distribution of income growth reversed itself from 1973 to 2007 as the income of the bottom 99 percent of families grew much more slowly (by just 15.4 percent) compared with the top 1 percent, whose average income grew by 216.4 percent. As a result, over half (58.7 percent) of all income growth in this period landed in the hands of the top 1 percent of families. (Data are shown in Appendix Table B8.)" 

Almost 60% of income growth over a 34 year period went to 1 out of 100 households -- Is that Stupendous or Disastrous? 
During the 28 years preceding, 1945 to 1973, it states, "Faster income growth for the bottom 99 percent of families meant that the top 1 percent captured just 4.9 percent of all income growth over the period. (Data are shown in Appendix Table B7.)" Therefore, the lower 99% received 95.1% of growth, and incomes increased by 100.1% (doubled) for the lower 99%. 

The BEA.gov Table 2.1 shows Personal Income, per capita, on line 39, in "Chained 2017 dollars", meaning adjusting for inflation. 
In 1947 the per capita income was $10,311, 
                          and in 1973 it was $21,020 (doubling, up 104% in 26 years  --- 4.0%/year). 
                         And in 2007 it was $50,233 (up 139% in 34 years  --- 4.1%/year)   

That reflects growth per capita, but we should check the middle household income growth to see if income growth was equally shared. 
The median household's income 
in 1947 was $3,000, and adjusting to chained 2017 dollars, that's $33,991. 
Median income in 1973was $12,050, and that "inflation adjusts" to $68,906 -- basically doubling.
Now how did middle family income grow from 1973 to 2007? 
It was $68,905 in 1973, and in 2007 it was $50,223, and that adjusted for 2017 inflation comes to $60,442. 
Recap: 
Median Household Income 1943  -- $33,991
                                             1973  -- $68,906    -- Where did growth go?  To the middle.
                                             2007  -- $60,442    -- Where did growth go?  To the top.   
Not satisfied with this conclusion I looked further. The U.S. Census has a table that reports median income grew by 10% or 17% between 1973 and 2007. But that is paltry growth when the "disposable personal income per capita" (as shown above) grew by 139% in 34 years. 

I rest my case. 

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Let's try comparing Median earnings for "men" nonsupervisory workers, and for all nonsupervisory workers, and with Real disposable income per capita
Weekly earnings for men were higher in 1979 than in 2023, for all workers in 2023 they were 9% higher, while per capita disposable income increases from $5,164 in January 1979 to $16,848 in October, 2023, an increase of 226%! It tripled

This is a disaster. It is a devasting hurricane, flood, tsunami, and earthquake fire in one slow movement. It is absolutely necessary to grasp the importance: Eighty percent of workers saw no income increase in 54 years while the economy more than doubled on a per person basis. Where did the additional income go? Not to workers. The economists and media downplay this event, they say "wages stagnated"; instead they should say wages did not grow at all while the economy did very well. 

The Washington Center for Equitable Growth presents this graph that disaggregates the growth, or separates growth among four income groups: the lower 50%, the next 40%, then the top 10%, and the top 1% of households (I presume households). Note: not much for the grey lower 50%, somewhat more for the blue 40%, mostly orange and red. 

And another from WCEG compares two periods: 


         Wealth         

Total national private wealth (household net worth) is almost $151 trillion (see here, page 1), which comes to $1.1 million per household as an average savings for all U.S. households. Yet the lower half own about 1% of all wealth (0.8% shows Realtime Inequality). Therefore, the average household net worth for the lower half of the U.S. is about $18,300. The Federal Reserve shows the lower half owning 2.6% of all wealth, about $59,500 per household. But the lower 40% own very little, just 0.7%, which equates to just less than $20,000 per household for the lower 40%. The average for all, again, is $1.1 million. (see the Credit Suisse Databook for 2022, page 144). 

Here is the Fed's page on wealth, 1990 to 2023 Q3.:

Here is the RealTime Inequality page on wealth, 1976 to 2023, notice the growth of the yellow line, representing the top 1%, its share growing from 22.5% to 35.6%.



       The Hypertrophic Wealth Picture     
I should also mention that wealth has exploded since 2009, tripling in nominal terms (from 48 trillion to $154 trillion, and adjusting for inflation increasing by 140%, a multiple of 2.4). There's a graph at the Fed's FRED page showing the ratio of "household net worth"(i.e., private savings) to annual "disposable personal income" (i.e., after-tax income). We are in extraordinary times: 
You can see that 
            from 1946 to 1997 the ratio ranged around 520%, and then it increased for the dot com boom, and the for the financial/housing price debacle, and now as a result probably of the corporations pouring profits into the hands of the minority of the population who own most of the financial assets. The Fed's Flow of Funds  reports the same ratio as in the graph above, at Table B.101 (line 50, page 142, September, 2023). The total private savings stands at $154.281 trillion. It was at $48 trillion in 2009. The "national debt to the penny" on November 9, 2023 stands at $33,700,702,394,486.03.  


       A Wealth Tax     
The part of the debt held by the public is $26.6 trillion, the national income in 2023 Q2 is $21.8 trillion. The federal budget expenses for 2023 will be $6.3 trillion, and the deficit is projected at $1.56 trillion; the deficit of $1.56 is about 25% less than total budget expenditures. It's also about 1% of total savings ($150 trillion). Since 2009 wealth has been exploding; it increased by $106 trillion, from $48 trillion to $154 trillion -- or $7.5 trillion per year  -- greater than annual federal expenses of $6.3 trillion. Obviously a modest wealth tax could balance the budget and pay down the debt rapidly. Bernie Sanders proposed a modest wealth tax in 2020, it would bring in $4.3 trillion over 10 years, or $435 billion per year. Adjusting to inflation it now would equal about $500 billion per year. A wealth tax of $500 billion is a 0.3% yearly tax on total wealth, a very small tax (500 divided by 151000 = 0.3). Thinking more radically, we might tax wealth to fund the entire federal budget until the ratio of wealth to annual income came into the range of the 1950 to 1995 norm. Not likely, but a valid goal to think about.

To recap-- wealth has exploded. 
In fact, if we reduced the total wealth figure down to its historical norm, 520% of "disposable personal income", we would have about $45 to $60 trillion less wealth. I judge this to be hoarded wealth, and it should be reduced and put to use. This would improve the economy because "reducing the wealth" would transfer the wealth into actual tangible goods distributed to the lower earning 90%. But that would be socialism, and we only permit socialism for the wealthy. 
The Sanders' wealth tax amounts to 0.3% per year. Reducing wealth until the ratio returned to its historical norm would add $45 to $60 trillion to the U.S. Treasury, enough to fund the entire federal spending for 8 to 10 years. This tax would be broadly supported by the public. My conclusion is that finding the optimum, correct and sensible income and wealth distribution profiles are imperative and inseparable to a healthy economy.   That thought is worthy of a book, and it is eminently intuitive.   
 
The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet -- Did It Exacerbate Inflation?  
Not all government spending proceeds from Congress and the President. The Federal Reserve buys back Federal Treasury Bonds, owns them as assets; here is the graph: 
Note that it bought them in emergencies such as the financial crisis of 2008 and then the crisis instigated by the Covid crisis. It ensured that banks had enough reserves to weather the economic storm. It prints money out of thin air and distributes it to banks, upon which the banks do what? Mostly place the money in other financial assets, thus boosting the value of the financial assets. Socialism for the rich. That's my theory, I have to admit I know little about this. Now I will find a graph of the rise in value of the S&P 500 since 2009:-- From Yahoo Finance, it shows a 7.5 fold increase since March 2009 to May 2024. 

The S&P 500 grows by 7.5 times since 2009 -- $7,000 becomes $52,000 in 15 years   


Comparing Growth Rates -- 
     Financial Assets, Real Disposable Income Per Capita, and Wages 
1969 to 2024
Total Financial Assets (inflation adjusted) in 55 years increased by 8.9 times.
Real disposable income increased by 2.7 times.
Weekly wage income decreased by 0.1%.
 
1996 to 2024
The financial assets increased by 150%, as this Federal Reserve graph shows, below.
Real disposable income per capita increased by 50% times. 
And "average weekly earnings" for nonsupervisory workers increased by 24%. And the cost of rental apartments increased by 66% (see here and adjust for inflation here). 

2009 Q1 to 2024
After the Great Recession financial assets increased by 93% since Q1 2009. 
The "Real disposable income per capita" increased by 26%. 
Inflation adjusted wages for nonsupervisory workers increased by 10%. 
The pattern is clear -- wages never keep up with average income or financial assets.

Below is "Domestic Financial Sectors: Total Financial Assets, Level (in current dollars, not inflation adjusted). -- 

Let's look at the household debt level as a percentage of GDP, from the FRED pages
                          


Average Household Debt Load 
From 1960 to 1980 the average appears around 45%, and of course we know it went through the ceiling around 2007 with the Great Recession, and now it's back to 73.4%, Q4 2023. That's not great, in my opinion. A fairly interesting report from Motley Fools, from April 2, 2024 shows the state of household debt, and it seems to be running within a range of stability. Here's a sentence I did not expect to find: 
"Average mortgage payment: $1,427
According to the U.S. Census Bureau's American Housing Survey, the average (mean) mortgage payment in 2021 was $1,427, while the median was $1,001."  
That would be an average of $17,124/year, and at the median $12,012/year. Much less than renting, for sure.

And also to bolster my case, a graph of the "median sales price of existing homes:    
The cost of a home, the median sales price, was $222,200 in 1969 (adjusting for inflation), and today the median price is $431,000. Wages have not grown at all, but the price of a house has almost doubled. How is it that the percentage of homeowners or mortgage holders has not decreased significantly? It has increased from 63% to 66%, see here.  I can't explain it. Median household income in 1969 was $75,679, adjusting for inflation (see here). In 2022 it was $74,580, a decrease of $1,099 or 1.4%. Again, the economy has grown by 153% on a per capita basis, but the median household income is 1% lower. How could this be?  Question: Is this damaging the economy? Does the "economy" work only for the wealthy? The Economic Policy Institute wrote a long article with 9 charts in 2015, it's worth looking at. 

William Lazonick's Research on Corporate Profits and Greed      

Instead of sharing the prosperity with workers or investing in innovative improvements, American corporations are bleeding their own organizations for the wealth they can extract. The victim is the U.S. population. Lazonick's 2020 book is titled "Predatory Value Extraction". We need a method to stop the bleeding and to distribute the rewards of work to all workers. . 
Requiring the largest employers to share their profits with workers is a natural response to this disaster.  (Another chart can been seen here.)

 The U.S. Census reports on business firm sizes; Wm. Lazonick (on page 6 and 7, here) reports that in "2017 some 2,156 firms with five thousand or more employees in the United States, with an average of 20,859 people on the payroll, accounted for 35.0 percent of all business-sector employees . . ." These 5,000-plus employee corporations are the ones I would target to disperse half their profits to workers.  Let's say they create half of all nonfinancial corporate profits, about $1.132 trillion. Then each of the 64 million nonsupervisory workers, 40% of all workers, would receive around $9,000 in added pay each year. (I took the annualized pre-tax income for nonfinancial corporations, found on page 18, here, the Fed's Flow of Funds report.) But I think the details could be easily worked out. This policy would in turn add pressure for other employers to raise the wages of their employees. Therefore about 134 million workers would see the benefit.  

The RealTime Inequality web page, created by economists at Univ. of California, Berkeley, shows that an income shift of 15.4% of total national income has happened between 1976 and 2023. That's $3.4 trillion that once went to the lower-earning 90% now goes to the top 10%. If that $3.4 tr. were restored to the 90%, then every household, 117 million, in the 90% would receive $29,000 more income. The lower 90% in 1976 received 62%, now it's 48%; the top 10% received 38%, now it's 53% (factor or market income, pre-tax). The average household income is $165,000 (Fed's Flow of Funds' report - page 10, line 1), but half of households earn less than half, half earn less than $74,580 in 2022. The average household income for the lower 50% is about $40,000 (see here). The average for the lower 50% is about 1 seventh the average for the higher 50%. That may seem incredible, but in my earlier essay I show that income distribution of 53% going to the top 10%, and 47% going to the lower 90%, the 1 to 7 ratio is accurate. The U.S. Gini for income inequality is above all OECD nations except Mexico and Turkey. And "Our World in Data" also shows income Gini higher than other developed countries. The median wage income in the U.S. was $37,587 for 2021, shows the Social Security report on wages. The average for the lower half is around $17,000, and 30% of all workers earn below $20,000/year. The total wage earnings for the lower half is less than 7% of the national income. Wages were higher for "nonsupervisory workers" in 1969 than in 2023. And as Lazonick cites, 69% of workers in Urban locations are living "paycheck to paycheck". --- A mandatory sharing of profits is needed to quickly change this crippling malfunction.

            ***       ***       ***       ***       ***       ***       ***       ***    

Lazonick in his top paragraph links to six studies showing the fragility of working America. For instance, one shows that 61% of U.S. adults are living paycheck to paycheck, and 69% in urban areas. That paragraph is a good reference. A report he sources is from Oxfam America, The Crisis of Low Wages in the U.S.. If any reader gets this far in this essay, some other week or month later he or she may climb the mountain of the Oxfam report. 

Writing for In These Times magazine, Colleen Boyle claims and proves that "In  a Single year, $1.78 trillion Was Taken from the Working Class".  Boyle claims, "In 2017 alone, then, the average worker lost $17,385 — because wages have not kept up with productivity."

In a two worker family that would mean an added $35,000 per year. 

I am going to leave this as is, short, to the point. When I wrote "short", months ago, it was short. The posts that predate this long essay mostly repeat the details I've stuffed into this essay.  

An excellent source of Facts on Inequality can be found here at Inequality.org. They offer an informative weekly newsletter also. Marjorie Kelly is featured in the newsletter of September 25, 2023. The Prosperity Now Scorecard also details state by state the disparities of income, wealth and home ownership. 

I just discovered a few excellent articles at Common Dreams: Tim Koechlin has written about a dozen articles, the last echoes my own views. And I enjoyed this one by Bruce Boccardy; he also has published 12 articles, most recent was 10/29/23. 

This blog entry has been much too long. I will quote Tim Koechlin, from his article linked to above; it's a fitting conclusion: 

"The U.S. remains a very rich country. We have the capacity to do much better. We have the capacity to deliver equitable, sustainable prosperity—and we know how to do it. A detailed plan is beyond the scope of this short essay, but here’s a start: a tax on wealth; tax increases on corporations and the super-rich; a higher minimum wage; deliberate, active efforts to improve worker bargaining power; affordable health care for all; a well-funded effort to provide affordable housing for all; the promotion of renewable energy and sustainable production technologies, and affordable higher education—including the elimination of student debt. More generally, we need to reject the presumptions that (a) our well-being depends on growth and (b) prosperity requires that we pander to corporations." 





  

Sunday, September 10, 2023

This posting is for Marjorie Kelly, author of Wealth Supremacy, to be released in September 2023, a message for M.K.. I am copying a comment I recently placed to a Michael Roberts' article

ADDENDUM: 1% of all adults in the world own 44.5% of all personal wealth, while more than 52% have only 1.2%. 

Michael Roberts, August 24, 2023 – Global Wealth Report -- by Credit Suisse Bank  -- His article reviewed the recent publication of this year's wealth report.

Here's my comment, with some lengthening: 

I fish around in the (Credit Suisse, 2023) Databook that accompanies the main report. (Search toward the bottom of the C.S. web page.) Just now I found that between year 2000 and 2022 the total wealth of China has grown by 12.6 times, and the average for the world wealth total shows it grew by almost 3 times. (page 117) The wealth for North America stalled between 2005 and 2010 due to the Great Recession, and since 2009 wealth doubled, shows the CSB Global Wealth report. In contrast the Fed’s Flow of Funds shows that wealth (total household net worth) was $48 trillion in Jan. 2009, and in early 2022 it was $150 trillion -- it tripled. Adjusting for inflation private wealth still grew by 140%, a multiple of 2.4. In the same 13 years real GDP per capita in the U.S. grew by 20% (Fed’s FRED graph). But average weekly earnings for 80% of workers, the nonsupervisory workers, went up by just 10%, in constant 2012 dollars. The growth in wages is half the rate of per capita GDP growth, and much slower than total wealth growth. This is common for wages to lag way behind over all growth. In fact I just looked up how much the total GDP per capita went up since 1969; it went up 150%. And somewhat unbelievably, "weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers" went down by 2.9%, call it 3%. (And see here, also) In the last 54 years weekly income, adjusted for inflation, fell, it is actually lower, even though the entire output/capita has increased by a multiple of 2.5!!!! As most know, the S&P 500 went up since Jan. 2009 to Dec. 2021 by about 6 times. (from 700 to 4300). If I had $1 million in an index fund, in 14 years it would be worth $6 million, and subtract expected and moderate living expenses (about $70,000 per year), I'd still be about $5 million wealthier. The point is that something strange is happening to the economy when wealth grows so much faster than income. And something equally weird when wage income goes down in 54 years.  

Just for fun, I'll look up total U.S. savings during January 2009 to July 2023, it's at the BEA.gov site, Table 2.1, line 34 --- total is $16.5422 trillion. This is a mental challenge: apparently American households set aside $16.5 trillion over the past 13 years, but their total net worth increased by about $100 trillion. How do we explain that? How do you make $16 grow to $100? How also do we account for Wm. Lazonick's finding that the nation's biggest corporations devoted over 90% of their profits to stock buybacks and dividends, and many even borrowed (went into debt) to place their additional funds into the stock market with buybacks? They calculated (speculated) that wealth was growing at an accentuated pace. You or I could make more money without lifting a finger than by working, especially if corporate profits continued to grow steadily. And lately nonfinancial corporate profits have increased by over 100% in 2.5 years (see the Flow of Funds report, page 18, line 1). From 2019 to Q2 2022, pre-tax profits increased from $1,235 billion to $2,507 billion, an increase of 103%. Not good for low-income families. The most recent Flow of Funds shows that total household net worth (on page 4) grew by $50.078 trillion in 5 years since 2018, from $104.204 tr. to $154.282 trillion, a 48% increase in 5 years. Each adult is worth $617,000, and each household is worth $1,160,000, on average. Does that make anyone reading this feel wealthy or feel lost because their net worth really went no where over the past 5 years. The lower-saving 50% are worth about $8,500 per adult. That's better than being in debt.     

I took the data from RealTime Inequality, they have graphs for the distribution of income, and another for wealth. See my next post/essay for many graphs from RealTime Inequality.

For Wealth: 

The most up-to-date shows the lower 50% of US adults own an average of $8,500, the group between 50% and 90% own $383K, the 90% to 98% own $2 M, the last 1% own $18M.  

Since 1976, the wealth share for the top 1% grew from 22% to 35%. The top 10% own 74%. It gets too loaded with numbers. With the income graph, not wealth, it shows an income shift of 15.4%, which amounts to $3.4 trillion that once was earned by the lower 90% is now earned by the top 10%. The top 10% earned in 1976 38%, now it's 53%; the lower 90% earned 62%, now it's 47%. If we had the same distribution ratio as 1976, each household in the lower 90% would have $29,000 more income each year. It’s shocking. That’s my essay below.  

This RealTime Inequality graph shows the wealth share of the top 1%, next 9%, the 50% to 90% group, and the lower 50% at the bottom. Notice the red line that goes from 22% to 35%. 

                    


I created a mental picture to describe wealth -- take the lower 50% of Americans, give them the height of a 1 inch stone; then take the next 40% (from to 50% to 90%) and give them the height of a bicycle; then take the next 9%, give them the height of a 2 story building or 2 basketball hoops; then take the last 1% and give it the height of a 20 story building.

That's how wealth is distributed in the U.S. -- a Stone, a bicycle, a 2 story building, a 20 story building. That simple. 

Added, 8.26.23

The other facts that come from the world wealth pyramid at Credit Suisse, page 21, not the Databook: 

the top 1.1% own on average $16.8 million, and 47.8% of global wealth. The next 12% average net worth is $193,753 and 38.1% of global wealth. The next 34.4% net worth averages $33,512 and 13% of global wealth. And the majority 52.5% average $1,935 per adult and 1.1% of global wealth. (This is all my calculation with $454 trillion being the sum of all world wealth). The last group owns between $1 and $10,000, meaning a good number own less than $500. This is a group portrait of a primitive group of humans. The ratio is from the bottom: $1, then $17, then $100, then $8,682

That's an inverted pyramid -- I wish I could draw it. 

The median wealth per adult for the whole world is $8,654 (page 138). But the average is $84,718(on page 138, Databook). On page 138 you see that Belgium wins the prize for most equally shared wealth, the median is pretty high, just under $250,000, and the average is over $350,000., and (page 144) the Belgium top 10% own just 43% of all wealth, compared to 74% in the U.S.. and 81.1% in Russia. Cell phones are very popular, no matter the wealth level. So are eskimo pies, I'm sure. An overview of wealth enables people to see the great potential that is unrealized. 

We might ask, why can't the median wealth owned per adult be about half the average, about $42,000? What would the world gain, and what would it lose? Who is in control, and who should be in control? In China wealth per adult grew (2000 to 2022) from $6,754 to $85,234, multiple of 12.6; with a median wealth of $27,273 in 2022, (Databook, page 138). In Turkey (2000 to 2022), like China, it was $6,555, and in 2022 $17,775, a multiple of 2.7, and a median wealth of $10,433. Again, the global adult wealth average is $84,718 (page 138 Databook). 

The goal for the world might be to increase net wealth for most who don't have it; not only private wealth but public wealth as well. A broadly shared ethos would be required to make progress. A criteria for determining excess hoarded wealth would be needed. The ethos of maximizing personal wealth would have to be discarded.