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Sunday, September 10, 2023

This posting is for Marjorie Kelly, author of Wealth Supremacy, to be released in September 2023, a message for M.K.. I am copying a comment I recently placed to a Michael Roberts' article

ADDENDUM: 1% of all adults in the world own 44.5% of all personal wealth, while more than 52% have only 1.2%. 

Michael Roberts, August 24, 2023 – Global Wealth Report -- by Credit Suisse Bank  -- His article reviewed the recent publication of this year's wealth report.

Here's my comment, with some lengthening: 

I fish around in the (Credit Suisse, 2023) Databook that accompanies the main report. (Search toward the bottom of the C.S. web page.) Just now I found that between year 2000 and 2022 the total wealth of China has grown by 12.6 times, and the average for the world wealth total shows it grew by almost 3 times. (page 117) The wealth for North America stalled between 2005 and 2010 due to the Great Recession, and since 2009 wealth doubled, shows the CSB Global Wealth report. In contrast the Fed’s Flow of Funds shows that wealth (total household net worth) was $48 trillion in Jan. 2009, and in early 2022 it was $150 trillion -- it tripled. Adjusting for inflation private wealth still grew by 140%, a multiple of 2.4. In the same 13 years real GDP per capita in the U.S. grew by 20% (Fed’s FRED graph). But average weekly earnings for 80% of workers, the nonsupervisory workers, went up by just 10%, in constant 2012 dollars. The growth in wages is half the rate of per capita GDP growth, and much slower than total wealth growth. This is common for wages to lag way behind over all growth. In fact I just looked up how much the total GDP per capita went up since 1969; it went up 150%. And somewhat unbelievably, "weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers" went down by 2.9%, call it 3%. (And see here, also) In the last 54 years weekly income, adjusted for inflation, fell, it is actually lower, even though the entire output/capita has increased by a multiple of 2.5!!!! As most know, the S&P 500 went up since Jan. 2009 to Dec. 2021 by about 6 times. (from 700 to 4300). If I had $1 million in an index fund, in 14 years it would be worth $6 million, and subtract expected and moderate living expenses (about $70,000 per year), I'd still be about $5 million wealthier. The point is that something strange is happening to the economy when wealth grows so much faster than income. And something equally weird when wage income goes down in 54 years.  

Just for fun, I'll look up total U.S. savings during January 2009 to July 2023, it's at the BEA.gov site, Table 2.1, line 34 --- total is $16.5422 trillion. This is a mental challenge: apparently American households set aside $16.5 trillion over the past 13 years, but their total net worth increased by about $100 trillion. How do we explain that? How do you make $16 grow to $100? How also do we account for Wm. Lazonick's finding that the nation's biggest corporations devoted over 90% of their profits to stock buybacks and dividends, and many even borrowed (went into debt) to place their additional funds into the stock market with buybacks? They calculated (speculated) that wealth was growing at an accentuated pace. You or I could make more money without lifting a finger than by working, especially if corporate profits continued to grow steadily. And lately nonfinancial corporate profits have increased by over 100% in 2.5 years (see the Flow of Funds report, page 18, line 1). From 2019 to Q2 2022, pre-tax profits increased from $1,235 billion to $2,507 billion, an increase of 103%. Not good for low-income families. The most recent Flow of Funds shows that total household net worth (on page 4) grew by $50.078 trillion in 5 years since 2018, from $104.204 tr. to $154.282 trillion, a 48% increase in 5 years. Each adult is worth $617,000, and each household is worth $1,160,000, on average. Does that make anyone reading this feel wealthy or feel lost because their net worth really went no where over the past 5 years. The lower-saving 50% are worth about $8,500 per adult. That's better than being in debt.     

I took the data from RealTime Inequality, they have graphs for the distribution of income, and another for wealth. See my next post/essay for many graphs from RealTime Inequality.

For Wealth: 

The most up-to-date shows the lower 50% of US adults own an average of $8,500, the group between 50% and 90% own $383K, the 90% to 98% own $2 M, the last 1% own $18M.  

Since 1976, the wealth share for the top 1% grew from 22% to 35%. The top 10% own 74%. It gets too loaded with numbers. With the income graph, not wealth, it shows an income shift of 15.4%, which amounts to $3.4 trillion that once was earned by the lower 90% is now earned by the top 10%. The top 10% earned in 1976 38%, now it's 53%; the lower 90% earned 62%, now it's 47%. If we had the same distribution ratio as 1976, each household in the lower 90% would have $29,000 more income each year. It’s shocking. That’s my essay below.  

This RealTime Inequality graph shows the wealth share of the top 1%, next 9%, the 50% to 90% group, and the lower 50% at the bottom. Notice the red line that goes from 22% to 35%. 

                    


I created a mental picture to describe wealth -- take the lower 50% of Americans, give them the height of a 1 inch stone; then take the next 40% (from to 50% to 90%) and give them the height of a bicycle; then take the next 9%, give them the height of a 2 story building or 2 basketball hoops; then take the last 1% and give it the height of a 20 story building.

That's how wealth is distributed in the U.S. -- a Stone, a bicycle, a 2 story building, a 20 story building. That simple. 

Added, 8.26.23

The other facts that come from the world wealth pyramid at Credit Suisse, page 21, not the Databook: 

the top 1.1% own on average $16.8 million, and 47.8% of global wealth. The next 12% average net worth is $193,753 and 38.1% of global wealth. The next 34.4% net worth averages $33,512 and 13% of global wealth. And the majority 52.5% average $1,935 per adult and 1.1% of global wealth. (This is all my calculation with $454 trillion being the sum of all world wealth). The last group owns between $1 and $10,000, meaning a good number own less than $500. This is a group portrait of a primitive group of humans. The ratio is from the bottom: $1, then $17, then $100, then $8,682

That's an inverted pyramid -- I wish I could draw it. 

The median wealth per adult for the whole world is $8,654 (page 138). But the average is $84,718(on page 138, Databook). On page 138 you see that Belgium wins the prize for most equally shared wealth, the median is pretty high, just under $250,000, and the average is over $350,000., and (page 144) the Belgium top 10% own just 43% of all wealth, compared to 74% in the U.S.. and 81.1% in Russia. Cell phones are very popular, no matter the wealth level. So are eskimo pies, I'm sure. An overview of wealth enables people to see the great potential that is unrealized. 

We might ask, why can't the median wealth owned per adult be about half the average, about $42,000? What would the world gain, and what would it lose? Who is in control, and who should be in control? In China wealth per adult grew (2000 to 2022) from $6,754 to $85,234, multiple of 12.6; with a median wealth of $27,273 in 2022, (Databook, page 138). In Turkey (2000 to 2022), like China, it was $6,555, and in 2022 $17,775, a multiple of 2.7, and a median wealth of $10,433. Again, the global adult wealth average is $84,718 (page 138 Databook). 

The goal for the world might be to increase net wealth for most who don't have it; not only private wealth but public wealth as well. A broadly shared ethos would be required to make progress. A criteria for determining excess hoarded wealth would be needed. The ethos of maximizing personal wealth would have to be discarded.     



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