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Friday, August 9, 2019

A Litany of Economic Woes

Every couple of weeks I add short supplements -- 
so check below for the highlighted add-ons.


                      A Litany of Economic Woes

As one who writes often about the economy, and often hears gasps of bewilderment and groans of boredom, I have tried to find ways to entice readers into the subject matter. But there is no corny joke to start this essay off. A litany is a list, and 8 items should give the reader a quick oversight of the failing economy. Added is a list of 4 reforms, simple and common sense. So let’s plunge in. 

1. The “average weekly earnings” of eighty percent of U.S. workers was higher in 1965, 54 years ago,  than in 2019, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics



2. The average income for all Americans has nearly tripled since 1965, 54 years ago, states the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce (Table 2.1, Disposable Personal Income per capita). It was $15,052 in 1964, today it is $44,455. Economic growth of the past 54 years has improved the lives of only a minority. Between 1973 and 2007 58.7% of growth was captured by the top one percent, is the finding of a report titled “The New Gilded Age.” (page 4, pdf version)

3. In the past ten years, 2009 to 2019, total private household wealth has doubled, increasing from $48 trillion to $108 trillion, states the Federal Reserves report “Flow of Funds” (page 2, and page 104). While wealth doubles, economic growth for the decade was slower than any preceding decade since 1950. While private wealth increased by nearly $60 trillion, the federal government’s expenditures were $41 trillion. Although the average savings per adult stands at $403,974, half of all adults own less than $62,000, or 15% of the average, and the lower half owns just 1.2% of all wealth. Wealth is highly concentrated, and even more than before.  

4. The average savings per adult is over $400,000, but 40% of adults report they would be unable to pay a $400 emergency expense within a 30 day period, states the Federal Reserve report on Household Well Being

5. The combined yearly wage income of half of U.S. workers, 82 million workers, amounts to less than 8% of the national income, states the Social Security Administration report on wage income. An income of less than $25,000 a year is earned by 42% of U.S. workers, and their average yearly income is $10,687.

6. The United Way charity reports, in its ALICE report, that 40% of U.S. households cannot afford seven basics of life: food, housing, utilities, transportation, phone service, health care, child care. And 40% of workers earn less than $15 an hour. The Federal Poverty Level for a family of four, $23,850 in 2014, comes to just 42% of the ALICE Basic Survival Budget for this family, $55,381. 

7. Over half of U.S. workers are employed in firms employing more than 500 employees, states the Small Business Administration. A study of the use of profits of the largest 500 corporations over a ten year period shows that 93% of profits were disbursed as stock dividends or stock “buybacks”, leaving little for research or employee wage raises. In 2018 over $1 trillion of profits were used for corporate stock buybacks. If instead of spending the trillion on buybacks corporations had increased employee pay, then for 61 million workers employed in companies with over 500 employees, each worker would have received a raise of $16,300. If the 30 companies comprising the Dow Jones Index had not purchased stock but had spent the money on wage increases, then each of the eight million employees would have received $46,000 in added pay. This article is thoroughly researched; here's a quote: "Nike, Coca-Cola and Visa each could have quadrupled the pay of their median employee with the cash they sent to shareholders. Nike paid a median wage of $24,955, which is under the poverty threshold for a family of four, but spent $58,194 per worker on share repurchases and $17,004 per worker on dividends. Coca-Cola paid a median wage of $47,312 but gave shareholders $162,136 per employee."

8. In 2013 one of the authors of the U.S. Census’s Supplement Poverty Measure wrote (on page 30) that 30% of U.S. families would be characterized as not able “to meet its basic needs and achieve a safe and decent standard of living.” This is a definition of poverty. 

This litany is startling and depressing. It’s a picture of a society drowning to death. What might we as a society do? 

Another list, much shorter: 

1. A raise of the minimum wage would affect the 69 million workers earning less than $25,000 a year. 

2. Passing the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act would enable at least 61 million workers, those who labor in large corporations, to negotiate for higher pay.

3. Creating national corporate charters for the largest companies, and passing the “Reward Work Act” would require “public companies to allow workers to directly elect one-third of their company’s board of directors.”

4. Creating a large publicly funded infrastructure project, such as the Blueprint plan outlined by the Center for American Progress, would tighten the labor market, raise wages and employment, and pay living wages to all employed in it. The Green New Deal mentions the potential for this approach. 

The true wealth of a nation is not money, but lies in its population, its human assets, their training, skills, and opportunities. The two reforms most needed are to 1) lower key household expenses, such as  housing, medical care and child care, and 2) create a tight labor market with full employment combined with workers’ rights to bargain for higher wages. If we could achieve the income distribution ratios of the years between 1946 and 1980, then ninety percent of households would, on average, enjoy a $20,000 rise in their incomes. This benign ratio is not a new concept, it existed for about 40 years. That would eliminate poverty and re-create the broad middle class that we’ve lost.  
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Notes: October 31, 2019: 
Income distribution re-visioned. 
and
Notes: Added Graphic, November 14, 2019

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
                        INCOME DISTRIBUTION CLARIFIED

In the table (Table 1, page 40) from the Saez, Piketty, Zucman report we see that the lower-earning 50% receives 12.5% of all pre-tax income, and the top one percent receive 20.2%. The differential is one to 81. To grasp this more clearly, imagine that the entire national income is $400, and ask how much does each adult receive. The following is the answer.
Each of the lower 50% receives a dollar. The group from the 50th to the 90th percentile receives $4 each.
The next 9 percent, 91st to 99th percentile, receives $12 each, and the last one percent receives $81.  

                    Distributing Income in U.S.A.
         Too Unequal !

     The lower half      the next 40 percent       the 91 to 99 group      the top One percent
      each earns           each earns                    each earns                  One earns
      one dollar            four dollars                 12 dollars                    81 dollars

                  When 50 earn $1, that’s $50                  12.5% to the lower half
                  When 40 earn $4.05, that’s $162           40.5% to percentiles 51 to 90
                  When 9 earn $12, that’s $108                26.8% to percentiles 91 to 99 
                  When 1 earns $81, that’s $81                20.2% to the Top One Percent
                                     TOTAL   $401             100.0%

   $ ONE to 50         $ Four to 40              $ 12 to 9                      $81 to ONE


The authors write: "Today they earn 81 times more. This ratio of 1 to 81 is similar to the gap 
between the average income in the United States and the average income in the world’s 
poorest countries, among them the war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, and Burundi.”

ONE  ———  FOUR————TWELVE————EIGHTY-ONE
for 50                       for 40                   for 9                                  for 1     
           X                 XXXX          XXXXXXXXXXXX              X XXXXXXXX
                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX
                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX
                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX
                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX
                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX
                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX
                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX

                                                                                              XXXXXXXXX


Sorry it's fuzzy; the best I can do. I copied it a second time for less fuzz.

I've re-ordered the income distribution table from the study by Piketty, Saez and Zucman. For 2014 they show the income percentages going to income groups; I transferred those group percentages to average income going to each group member.  For instance the lowest-earning 50% of American adults in 2014 earned 12.5% of all income. If there were only 100 workers and together they earned $401 in 2014, then each of the lower-earning 50 would earn $1. It is more starkly unequal to see the 
XXXs . My data comes from the Saez, Piketty, Zucman study of 2016, Distributional National Accounts, Table 1 (NBER Working Paper 22945). A companion article is Economic Growth in the United States, A Tale of Two Countries.

The authors took tax records and found out every taxpayer's income over 30 years and more. 
In 1980, the lower-earning half the U.S. population had an income of $16,000, but in 2014 it had increased by 1% to $16,200. No growth. 
Then the next 40 percent, from 51 to 90 percentiles, saw 40% average growth in 34 years, from an average income of $50,000 to $70,000. This group also captured 32% of all the growth in 34 years. 
The top 91 to 99 percentile saw growth of 120% and they captured 32% of all growth. 
The top 1% had income growth of 210%, tripling. The one percent’s average income jumped from $425,000 to $1.3 million. They captured 36% of all growth.  
I should remind readers that the study published at EPI.org, The New Gilded Age states that 58.7% of all growth went to the top one percent between 1973 and 2007, slightly different. See page 4 of the pdf version.   


The pattern in the distribution of income growth reversed itself from 1973 to 2007, with over half (58.7 percent) of all income growth concentrated in the hands of the top 1 percent of families. 

This "Gilded Age" report is daunting. They report on the 2015 income distribution in all 3061 counties in the U.S. In Teton County, WY, the one percent receive 59.0% of all income, and half way down, #1531, in Jefferson, Tennessee, they receive 11.7%, and at the bottom, #3061, in Valdez Cordova, Alaska, they receive 5.1%. 

Now, back to the Saez, Piketty, Zucman report.
From that basic info I looked at Table 1, the first page after page 39, and I transferred 12.5% of income into average income under the hypothetical that 100 workers earned $401 that year. The average income per person in the lower 50% was 1 dollar. 

For every one dollar earned by the lowest 50,   
                                        $1
   the next 40 earned $4, 
and    the next 9 earned $12
and  the final 1% earned $81.        How do you like that? 


The authors write: "Today they earn 81 times more. This ratio of 1 to 81 is similar to the gap between the average income in the United States and the average income in the world’s poorest countries, among them the war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, and Burundi.

In year 1980 the differential between the 50% and the top 1% was 27 times; the ratio tripled to 1 to 81 between 1980 and 2014. 
This is pre-tax income. The post-tax income is more equal and the gaps or differentials are smaller by about half. Government social benefit transfers make a difference.  


My critique of capitalism is simply that community is destroyed when income is  extremely unequal. Democracy and liberal values are destroyed. I'm reading James Crotty's book "Keynes Against Capitalism", published 2019, and Crotty shows Keynes making much the same criticism.                 
My disenchantment also stems from the fact that so few get the real picture. 
You can view a bar graph of this income distribution at my old blog, the June 2018 essay, see the third graph, the blue one from Olivier Giovannoni's study. 

Another rarity not regularly reported has to do with
          income share lost to the lower-earning 90% of taxpayers                               since 1965.

                            

The share of income of the top 10% was below 33% between years 1943 and 1981. In 1965 the share was 31.5%, while in 2017 it was 47.9%, a shift of 16.2%. How much is 16.2% of disposable income in 2019? The BEA.gov table shows total disposable income, for Q3 2019, at $16.572 trillion.
16.2% of $16.572 trillion is $2.684 trillion. If the lower 90% had maintained its income share, then each household among the 115 million would have an
                   income increase averaging $23,321 -- after taxes.
Call it an increase of $27,265 before federal taxes. 
 The gain is incredible. Adding the $23,321 to all 90% would mean --
          The average income for the
                            first quintile is        $13,700, it would be $37,021
                            second quintile is    $32,200, it would be $55,521
                            third quintile is        $52,900, it would be $76,221
                            fourth quintile is      $86,500, it would be 109,821.
This would eradicate poverty in the U.S.

And I can't do the last 10% up to the 90% percentile, as the data from the ITEP site, the table at the end of the report "Who Pays Taxes in America in 2019?" does not separate out that data.
The median income for 2018 would be not $63,179 but $86,500. Mostly the top 1% would lose income.
My previous blog, Economics Without Greed, has the same graph in the last essay, colored blue; it originated from a Levy Economic Institute report by Olivier Giovannoni, page 35, and it should be common knowledge.

This graph above included updated information to 2017 from the Top Income Data from the study "Income Inequality in the United States, 1913 to 1998". This interactive graph appears in the article "Unprecedented" published at the Economic Policy Institute, October, 2019.

The Conclusion of "The New Gilded Age" report states a similar finding:
The gains of those at the top have come at the expense of the vast majority of working families. The Economic Policy Institute’s The State of Working America, 12th Edition, found that between 1979 and 2007, had the income of the middle fifth of households grown at the same rate as overall average household income, it would have been $18,897 higher in 2007—27.0 percent higher than it actually was (Mishel et al. 2012).
Adjust that for inflation to 2019, the $18,897 becomes $24,025 -- more income to the middle fifth.

And economist James Cypher, writing in Dollars and Sense magazine in 2011, states the same conclusion,

Nearly $2 Trillion Purloined from U.S. Workers in 2009

The lower-earning 90% of U.S. households would enjoy an income increase of $17,391 for each.
But the actual increase today would be closer to $3 trillion, make it an increase of $26,086. That would end poverty. The question serious adults should ask, if it worked back then, 1946 to 1980, why can't we make it work now? Why? Why?  



Added November 17, 2019 :   
The ratio of income, 1 to 81, reported above is pre-tax. I became curious about the post-tax ratio and figured it out. To save readers the effort I'm just reporting the ratio, a proof would be wearisome for any reader. Below this brief paragraph I report on the wealth ratio, where the gap jumps. The pre-tax income ratio, the lower 50 to the top 1, is 1 to 81, as reported. The post-tax ratio is 1 to 40.2, meaning the social programs narrowed the differences, lowered poverty, and in general brought much assistance to low earners. Social Security is the largest program, then the Earned Income Tax Credit. The full list is in the Supplemental Poverty Measure. Poverty is reduced by more than 40%. But this is "official" poverty, and the actual hardship and poverty is between 26% and 40%. The lower-earning 50 percent, however, cannot save, and the differences in savings' amounts between the groups is a Grand Canyon gap.  
The wealth ratio is 1 to  1,475.    Imagine 50 people 1 inch tall and one person 130 feet tall -- same ratio. 

Returning to income gaps, the post-tax gap between the lower fifty and the top one percent is reduced from 81 to 40.2.    
The pre-tax gap was 81. 
For every one dollar earned by the lowest 50:                                                                                                                                     
                                      The post-tax ratio in comparison:
                        Pre-tax      $1    Post-tax    $1
            the next 40 earned $4                  $2.7
     and the next 9 earned $12                   $6.7
 and the final 1% earned $81                 $40.2

_____________________________________________________________________________


Wealth per adult - Ratios 

Total adults in U.S. 2019 =  245,140,000, page 169  
Total Wealth, U.S. =  $105.990 trillion, page 166
Wealth spread by deciles, page 168

Lower 50% owns 1.2% of wealth, or $1.27188 trillion. 
Divided among 122.5 million adults, that’s $10,383 per adult. 

Mid portion, percentiles 51 to 90, or 58,198,060 adults, owns 22.9% of wealth, or $24.27171 trillion
Divided by 58,198,060, that comes to $247,671 per adult.

The 91 to 99th percentile, 9%, or 22.05 million adults, owns 40.5% of wealth, or $42.92595 trillion.
Divided among 22.05 million adults, that’s $1,946,755 per adult. 

The top 1 percent, 2.45 million adults, owns 35.4% of wealth, or $37.52046 trillion.
Divided among 2.45 million adults, that is $15,314,473 per adult.

Per adult, the lower half each owns $10,383
The next forth percentile each owns $247,671.
The ninety-first to the ninety-ninth percentile each owns $1,946,755.
The top one percent each owns $15,314,473

The gap between the lower 50% and the top one percent is 1,475 ————  (15,314,473 / 10,383).

As a ratio: 
The lower 50 each has 1.
The next 40 each has 24.
The next 9 each has 188.

The top 1 each has 1,475.    
The gap between those in the lower 50% to those in the top 1% is 1,475. ONE TO 1,475 


Added information, October 13, 2019: 
The Social Security Administration released its annual wage income report this month. 
Median (or middle worker) wage income for over 167 million workers was $32,838. This is an increase since 2017 of  2.5% (adjusted for inflation). Not bad.

The average income per worker for the lower half was $14,320.
The collective income of this lower half of workers -- an income of $1.2 trillion for 88 plus million workers -- amounted to only 8.0% of the total national income (I added the lower total, $1,201 billion, and divided by the Joint Committee on Taxation total national income for 2018, $15,007 billion equals 8.0%). I ask myself if this is a fair wage. Wage income is very low in the U.S.A.

Really, you have to be willing to work your brain with simple arithmetic to follow my discussion in this part of the essay. How simple is 8%? for half of the workers? 

This year wage income was 56% of all income. This is not unusual; the State of Working America  shows for year 2011 that it was 54%. The sources of other income are indicated: capital gains, pensions, proprietors' income, cash transfers, in-kind income, and so on.  

As the lower half earned 8.0% in wages, the higher half earned about 48.0% (for a total of 56%), and other income earned 44%. (8 + 48 + 44 = 100, got it?)  Most of the "other income" was capital income that is destined for high earning households. Look at the State of Working America table to confirm. As my last essay at the former Economics Without Greed blogspot shows, 12.5% of all income goes to the lower-earning half of Households. 

The average annual worker income for the lower half is $14,320. (You have to divide the $1.2 trillion by the 83.8 million workers)  Minimum wage, $7.25 an hour for 2080 hours (one year) equals $15,080. The average for 88 million workers is $760 less, or 5% below, the yearly income of a full-time minimum wage worker. Half of the workers are earning less than a minimum wage worker who works full-time and year round. Think about it for a few seconds. What this means is that wage income is very low in the U.S.  --- $7.25 an hour? That's very low income, it is poverty. How do these workers evade the "poverty" designation? They are married to a higher earning worker. Together their household rises above official poverty. 

The BLS table says that the median weekly income for part-time workers in 2018 was $267 a week, or $13,884 a year. I believe this is wrong or incorrect. And another table says that 17.4% of workers are part-time. Therefore we must add 32.6% full-timers to the part-timers (17.4%) to make up the lower-earning 50%, half. Many full-timers, 32.6%, must be partial-year workers; otherwise they'd  be making below minimum wage, $15,080. A part-time worker earning $15 an hour and working half time, 1,040 hours a year, would earn $15,600 in a year. The BLS numbers or the SSA numbers seem to conflict. Perhaps the partial-year workers are not accurately included. I choose and believe the accuracy of the SSA numbers; it seems incredible that the SSA would inflate the number of W-2 forms received. The error lies, probably, because the BLS does not report number of hours worked per year, and it estimates by surveys, not by actual counts. The latter also results in an underestimate  of the true unemployment rate, which I think is almost 10%. See the njfac.org (monthly unemployment report) for additional arguments. And see economist Jack Rasmus discuss my analysis on his blog, here. It is too complex to burden this essay with the details, but nearly 10% of workers today are UNEMPLOYED, says I. 

Eighteen years ago, in 2000, the median worker, exactly in the middle, earned, adjusting for inflation, $30,631, or $2,207 lower than in 2018; in 18 years the median has increased by 7.2%, a pitiful 0.4% per year. A look at the per capita disposable income from 2000 to 2018, at Table 2.1 BEA.gov, shows that income for all increased by 32.4% (in "chained (2012) dollars"). The economy as a whole grew 4.5 times faster than the median wage income! This is the ongoing trend since 1973. Recall a study cited above, The New Gilded Age, (see pdf version, page 4) that  claims that 58.7% of all growth went to the top one percent.  

Recently I calculated that the average income for the lower-half of households was $27,960, and the average for the higher half was $187,111 (30 to 180 is a difference of 6 times). The differential is 6.7 times. The higher half average is 6.7 times that of the lower half. (See the table I used the data from the ITEP.org report "Who Pays Taxes in America? 2019" , see the last table). Imagine two workers;  one earns $1 and the second earns $6.70 -- that's how it goes today in the U.S.A. 

https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/WPTIA-2019_table-2.png

It is depressing not just for lower-earning workers. It is depressing for everyone. I have friends who cannot afford dental care, and maybe you know someone who can't afford prescriptions, or can't afford rent, or child care, or a trip to their parents, or maybe a night at the restaurant. Forty percent of households cannot afford basic expenses says the ALICE  report from the United Way charity  -- think food, rent, utilities, car expenses, phone, medical, child care. Think about going without some of these things. Life starts to look grim, especially when this condition is continual over the years. Think about giving up your Internet connection and not being able to read this blog!
  

It doesn't have to be this way. The average wage income for all workers is just over $50,000 (SSA report 2018), and the average income per household is over $117,000 -- AVERAGE! I think that 28% of households are single person households. Take a look at this from the USCensus, here. It says 28%. (And divide the JCT total income of $15 trillion by 128 million households. It is an average of over $117,000). The average wealth for all 250 million adults is over $400,000, see here (Databook, 2018, page 152). Imagine a nation in which all adults had an average of between $200,000 and $600,000 in savings and NET worth -- that should be us. It isn't. As you can see by looking back at my former blog, last essay citing Edward N. Wolff, or at the Credit Suisse Databook (above), both agree, the lower 40% own ZERO percent of the national savings! And 40% cannot pay an emergency expense of $400 says the Federal Reserve report on household well-being.
  
I try not to clutter the main text of my essays with details that just make it harder to grasp the essentials, so I put this added stuff at the end. I hope it depresses you.

Next, in 24th Place: 
The United Nations produces yearly an Index of Human Development, and another index more accurately adjusted for inequality. In 2017 the U.S. scored 11th among all 189 nations before adjusting for inequality, and after it placed 24th, between Korea, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia and Isreal. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/IHDI) Yet in income and GDP per capita, the U.S. ranks at the top among major nations.

The very last added comment: The graph at the top shows the movement of "average weekly earnings" for 80% of workers who are employees. Here's what I calculated: In 1973 we saw the peak wages for this 80% group, whose average yearly income (adjusting for inflation) was $47,143. It declined by 24% until 1991 and reached $35,701. These are the years of Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush 1. Then it picked up and now stands at $43,403, still 8% below the 1973 level. And how much has the "per capita disposable income" increased (found at BEA.gov, Table 2.1) since 1973?
Good question. In the past 46 years, per capita income increased by 122%, more than doubling. Income for 80% drops by 8%. Who says we are not the greatest?    Why not share this blog with a friend?  I would sleep better if you did.


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Addendum, September 9, 2019:
Steven Greenhouse, labor journalist and author of The Big Squeeze and the new book Beaten Down, Worked Up -- The Past, Present, and Future of American Labor, speaks for over an hour about his new book -- a video: see here. And Ralph Nader interviews S. Greenhouse on his Radio Hour, October 26, 2019. 
_________________________

 October 11, 2019 -- I recommend two articles: 1) By Sam Pizzigati at Inequality.org, "Have Researchers Just Hit an Inequality Trifecta?". Learn what a trifecta is, and learn that, "America’s 400 richest households paid taxes at a lower rate than any other income cohort in the nation, the first time that’s happened since the modern federal income tax went into effect in 1913." and that, "In 1950, Saez and Zucman point out, our top 400 households had a combined tax bill that averaged 70 percent of their incomes. A generation later, in 1980, that combined rate took 47 percent — about half — of top-400-household incomes. That rate has since fallen to last year’s 23 percent." 

Captured by the 1%? Take a look at the report from the Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy as they critique the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, the Trump/Republican tax cut. You might conclude that the 1%, who received 58.7% of economic growth since 1973, has captured the federal government and its tax system. And a second report here -- the top 1% receive average of $50,000 in tax cuts, the lower 20% receive $90.

And the other article, 2) By Clay Marsh "Facing Deaths of Despair from the Depths of Despair in  West Virginia". The first spotlights recent research and the second paints the outcome of lost opportunity resulting in lost lives. A HALF MILLION LIVES LOST IN 14 YEARS-- A quote from one reference in the article: " If the white mortality rate for ages 45−54 had held at their 1998 value, 96,000 deaths would have been avoided from 1999–2013, 7,000 in 2013 alone. If it had continued to decline at its previous (1979‒1998) rate, half a million deaths would have been avoided in the period 1999‒2013, comparable to lives lost in the US AIDS epidemic through mid-2015. Concurrent declines in self-reported health, mental health, and ability to work, increased reports of pain, and deteriorating measures of liver function all point to increasing midlife distress." 
And another study referenced in the article states, "A difficult childhood reduces life expectancy by 20 years among adults who experienced six or more particular types of abuse or household dysfunction as kids, while those who suffered fewer types of trauma lost fewer years of life, a large-scale epidemiological study finds." 
The conclusion states, "In other words, looking at life fearfully with a mindset of scarcity (my emphasis) physically ages people, diminishes their health, and makes them prone to drug addiction and other ills. 
Alternatively, if we look at our lives as full, abundant, and safe, we can reduce stress, improve our health, and maintain our vitality.
If we can address the epidemic of hopelessness and isolation in West Virginia and across the United States, we will also address our health crises."




Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Want to Expand the Economy? Tax the Rich!

Two articles by Nick Hanauer --
Democrats Must Reclaim the Center at Politico.   The left is the center, he shows.
                         and
Want to Expand the Economy? Tax the Rich!: If Democrats want to win big in November, they must do more than just renounce trickle-down economics. They need to replace it.

This comes out of the American Prospect magazine, and it's a great article.   B.L.   2.27.19

Thursday, February 14, 2019

My first essay at this #2 spot. http://benL88.blogspot.com

See my original blog:              http://benL8.blogspot.com 

              (Below this first essay is another on 
                               Climate Change)


Poverty, Hardship, “Doing OK”, and “Living Comfortably” in the U.S.A.

The disruptive effects of inequality are not clearly perceived by the American public. If they were the political conversation would seek to repair the decades of tilted growth, and to shore up the majority of  households who simply are not making it adequately.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a creation of now Senator Elizabeth Warren, published a survey “Financial Well-Being in America” in 2017, and certain details exemplify the sad, precarious and inescapable conditions confronting too many Americans. The questions about “liquid assets” show that 24% of adults have less than $250 in savings or liquid assets, 35% have less than $1,000, 54% have less than $5,000, and 73% have less than $20,000 (Exhibit A5). In stark contrast the Federal Reserve report, Flow of Funds (page 2), shows the total net worth of U.S. households stands at $109 trillion, and that comes to a “mean average” savings of $858,267 per household. Half of households own less than $82,000 including non-liquid assets, that is including the value of their homes, as reported by Edward N. Wolff in December, 2017. And in the same report, 40% are reported to owe approximately 0.5% of total wealth, that is, their debts are greater than their savings. Nothing could more clearly demonstrate the immoderate nature of the nation’s inequality. 

The same CFPB report says that 43% of Americans “have difficulties making ends meet”, while 34% report they “experience material hardship”. The Federal Reserve report on Household Well-Being says that about 40% of adults have “scores that suggest a high likelihood of material hardship". And while the official U.S. Census reports that 12.3% live in poverty, and the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) shows 13.9%, many scholars maintain that this understates poverty by half. In 2013 one of the authors of the SPM wrote (page 23) that 29.9% of Americans were unable to “achieve a safe and decent standard of living”. A report from the United Way charity, the ALICE report, surveying all the counties in the U.S. and focusing on 15 states, claims that 40% of households cannot afford the cost of seven normal expenses: food, shelter, utilities, medical care, transportation, phone service and child care. 

Moving up above the lower 43% who are poor or struggling, there are 25% in the middle who state they are “doing OK”. This mediocre condition is short of the experience of the highest earning 33% of American adults who report they are “living comfortably”. These are the findings of the CFPB report. 

Expanding this picture shows that at the bottom, at least 1% live in extreme poverty, living on less than $2 a day income; a total of 5% live in “deep poverty” or below half the official poverty level; then a total of 13% or so live below the official poverty level (including the extreme and the deep groups); and a total of about 25% (estimated) live in the condition of “unable to achieve a safe and decent standard of living”, and then 34% experience hardship (inability to pay normal expenses), and 43% worry about making ends meet. Coincidentally, the SPM shows that 43% of Americans live with incomes below 200% of the Federal Poverty Level; their incomes are measured after paying all taxes and receiving all government benefit transfers. That completes the lower earning 43%. Next there is a core of 25% who are “doing OK”, and then at the top end, those 33% who are “living comfortably.” 

The national mean average household income is around $120,000 per year, but half of all households live with incomes below $61,372. (In 2018 the Joint Committee on Taxation reported a national income of $15.0 trillion, and the Census reports 127 million households, and this reflects an average income of $118,165 per household.) Furthermore, the mean average household net worth is $858,000 per household, yet half live with less than $82,000, and the lower 40% have negative net worth. Another measure from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that $47,421 is the post-tax income for each citizen in the nation, all 325 million citizens; and that equates to an average post-tax income of $189,684 for all 4 person households. Yet half of all four person families have incomes half that amount, or $94,876 in pre-tax income. Their post-tax income is below $70,000. These high levels of poverty (13%), hardship (34%) and worrying about  not “making ends meet” (43%), and even the weak admission of  just “doing OK” (25%) are surprising and unacceptable in a nation where all could be at the level of “living comfortably”. And the paucity of savings among the lower-earning 80% is clearly a rebuff to those who believe the economy distributes its resources fairly.    

A report from the Economic Policy Institute, “The New Gilded Age”, shows (page 12) with voluminous detail the history and extent of income inequality. In short it contrasts two periods of growth, the 28 years between 1945 and 1973, contrasted with the 42 years 1973 to 2015. In the first period 4.9% of growth went to the top-earning 1%, and 95.1% went to the lower-earning 99%. In the second period 56% went to the top 1% while 44% went to the lower 99%. In the first period the real inflation adjusted incomes of the 99% doubled, all 99% of households increased income by 100.1% in 28 years. In the second period of 42 years the lower 99% increased their incomes by 15.4%. The top 1% increased their incomes by 216.4%, more than tripling. This is a jaw-dropping report of extreme economic disruption. 

Personally I think the remedy for this is to create tax incentives for corporations to increase the wage incomes of their employees. Extensive research shows that corporations are distributing over 90% of their profits into stock buybacks or shareholder dividends. The big money in the economy is found in the biggest corporations, and they can easily afford increasing workers’ salaries. Over half (53%) of U.S. workers work in firms with more than 500 employees, which pay 59% of all wage income. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, shows that the “average weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers”, 80% of all workers, was higher in 1964 than today in 2019, incredibly. The BEA.gov (Table 2.1) shows that post-tax income has tripled for all citizens on an inflation adjusted scale. The per capita economy triples while 80% are earning virtually the same as they earned 54 years ago! Corporations can afford to do better by their workers. 

The other remedy is raising the minimum wage to somewhere near $15 an hour. This may prove impractical as lower paying employers operate small firms that may find it difficult to increase their overhead. But an increase for these lower paid workers is necessary. The ALICE report shows that 40% of workers earn below $15 an hour, and 60% earn below $20 an hour. The U.S. Census states that the median male full-time worker earns about $25 an hour, and the female full-time worker earns $20 an hour, at the median. But -- and it's most meaningful -- the Social Security Administration report on wage income shows that the lower-earning half of all U.S. workers have a combined income of less than 8% of the total U.S. income (see the Joint Committee on Taxation report, page 31, for the table on total income and taxes). 


While this article is dense with numbers, the simple fact that stands out is that too many are struggling in an economy that is never-before so affluent. 
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Additional Reading and Listening
Marjorie Kelly's book Owning Our Future - The Emerging Ownership Revolution, Journeys to a Generative Economy,
2012, focuses on converting corporations from extractors of resources to generators of prosperity. What changes in corporate structure and purpose are needed? She works for the Democracy Collaborative .org.  
She's written extensively, see her bibliography. A quote from page 20, the corporation's "purpose is manufacturing financial wealth in endlessly growing quantity. . . this extraction weakens the vitality of the real economy of jobs, families, and communities." (A new book is announced, June 1, 2019, "The Making of a Democratic Economy". David Korten wrote his response: "As champions of worker and community ownership, Kelly and Howard remind us that economic democracy is essential to political democracy and a viable human future."
—David Korten, author When Corporations Rule the World and Change the Story, Change the Future: A Living Economy for a Living Earth.
I also like this comment: "Marjorie Kelly and Ted Howard have given us the roadmap toward economic democracy. But they don’t just show the interstates and the major landmarks— they show the byways and small towns where real change comes from. In this moment when greater and greater numbers of people are realizing that the rules of capitalism must be rewritten, the stories in these pages, and the strategies that Kelly and Howard share, will guide our way forward.





Lenore Palladino, Senior Economist, The Roosevelt Institute


     As I said somewhere William Lazonick states that 1,910 corporations generate 44% of all receipts, employ 34% of all employees, and have an average employee size of 25,000. Those are the trouble-makers, and that benevolent veneer is just that, only skin deep. 

Now for listening: 
Pitchfork Economics, podcasts see here. Nick Hanauer co-publishes this web page. He has the distinction of  arguing for much higher tax rates on the wealthiest in his article at the American Prospect. In their first interview they invite William Lazonick to explain the essence of stock buybacks. From Hanauer's recent, Summer 2018, article, about lowering taxes on the rich and corporations: "As a venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur who’s made a personal fortune founding or funding more than 30 companies, I can tell you firsthand that this classic trickle-down narrative represents more than just a fundamental misunderstanding of how market capitalism works; it is in fact a con job and a threat—an intimidation tactic posing as a theory of growth."
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GDP to Wealth graph from Real Investment Advice, a financial advisory firm. Other sites also have iterations of this graph, if one wishes to hunt. I've published it before at EWG, part one. 
U.S. Household Net Worth vs. GDP
And more important is this second graph, 
Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP
From 1952 to 1997 it averaged about 350% of GDP, now it's floating above 500%. So it is about 42% too high above the 45 year average. Now, late February, 2019, the S&P 500 is at 2,792, and should it be 1,619? That's my rough estimate of where it should be.
In October, 1972, "average weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers" was at a high, about 8% higher than in January, 2019. (Another graph of this, unadjusted for inflation, is available at the FRED series of graphs, Federal Reserve) Weekly and yearly earnings dropped 5% over the 70s, and then another 15% until 1993. The graph above shows the lowest ratio years, net worth to GDP, were from 1974 to 1979. This is why I advocate a large tax on wealth, stronger union powers including strike rules.

James Cypher, in an article published at Dollars and Sense magazine, July, 2011, "The Purloined Trillions" writes, "In 2009, stock owners, bankers, brokers, hedge-fund wizards, highly paid corporate executives, corporations, and mid-ranking managers pocketed—as either income, benefits, or perks such as corporate jets—an estimated $1.91 trillion that 40 years ago would have collectively gone to non-supervisory and production workers in the form of higher wages and benefits. These are the 88 million workers in the private sector who are closely tied to production processes and/or are not responsible for the supervision, planning, or direction of other workers."

Take the $1.9 trillion and divide it among the 88 million workers --- a raise of $21,704 per worker. 

Few Americans are informed, and I think most economists are remiss in dismissing this important fact.

In 2018 only 25,000 workers conducted "work stoppages", or went on strike, in actions involving over 1,000 workers. In 1974 the ratio of striking workers to total workers much higher, and if -- that elusive if -- (and if) the same ratio had been striking in 2018 then some 3.3 million workers instead of 25,000 would have been striking. Strikes have nearly disappeared, as wages have stagnated.

Income and wealth should be transferred back to levels of the 1960s and 70s. That sounds like confiscation, but it is striking a healthy balance (pun unintended). The gains of the elite 1%, the tripling of their incomes, were not earned -- policy made it possible -- their gains were stolen in effect by changes in policy. Capitalism has inherent defects, it is not pie-in-the-sky-wonderful. See the great blue graph by Giovannoni in my essay here.
To learn more about the above graphics 
Read the article from the creators of this graphic.

Using the same graphs above, Jesse Colombo publishing at Forbes magazine argues that, "The current U.S. household wealth bubble will end the way that the last several asset and wealth bubbles did: from the ending of the loose monetary conditions that caused it in the first place. As hedge fund manager Jeff Gundlach put it, the Fed will keep hiking interest rates until “something breaks.”
Colombo's article is a thorough examination of the interplay of inflated wealth levels, interest rates, debt burden, CPI to rent to housing costs. It shows that housing costs in late 2018 are almost at the same emergency level above the rising CPI level they were in 2007. Corporate debt levels also are at a high, foreboding a collapse that would create unemployment and recession. Debt levels triggered the collapse of 2007.
I checked the Fed's Flow of Funds, December, 2018, Table D.3, about debt levels. Since 2008 the "Domestic Financial Sector" "Outstanding Debt" has decreased by a third, from 122% of GDP to 79%. That's good. But still too high. Government debt (federal and state and local) has risen by 100%, not good. Corporate debt is about the same level 75% when in 2008 it was 73% of GDP. Household debt has dropped from 96% to 76%. And the total of all debt has increased from 239% of GDP to 250% in 2018. The question I find unsolvable is how housing and rent can be so high. The wealth effect has some influence, the low interest rates on mortgages another. The gap between CPI growth and housing price growth is now the same as in 2008. Not good.  In two days the Flow of Funds will be published, March 7, 2019.

Instead of Enriching Shareholders, These Companies Could Give 8 Million Workers a $46,000 Raise

This article appeared in the magazine In These Times, by Colleen Boyle, February 4, 2019. It documents the profit dispersal of the 30 companies comprising the Dow Jones Index, the total dollars dispatched to stock buybacks and dividends. If instead they had given bonuses to all workers? For some corporations it would be a raise of $165,000, for others just $4,000; the average $46,000. There is a table at the bottom showing the median wage income of each company's workforce, and the hypothetical bonus. This paragraph, written by Colleen Boyle, not me, asks the most important question:

It’s difficult to quantify the economy-wide impact of this shift in wealth. In 2017, the U.S. median household income was $61,372. Median income for men was $44,408 and median income for women was $31,610. Imagine if several million workers had an extra $10,000 a year to spend on their families. Or $20,000. Or $100,000. Much of that money would circulate in local economies rather than sitting in a small number of investment accounts.

If the largest 1,909 U.S. corporations employing 34% of all workers and generating 44% of all revenue that William Lazonick writes about dispersed most, say 60% to 75%, of their profits to workers (IF? remember) instead of shareholders, then how much would all workers benefit? And beyond the largest firms, there is a domino effect, and lower-wage workers in smaller companies would gain. The ALICE reports from United Way shows that around 50% of workers worked in firms with more than 500 workers. As I show in my last essay at blog 1, see here, the lower-earning 90% has lost since 1980 about 18% of the income share, a drop from 55% to 38%, and that averages close to $20,000 per worker.
At risk is the overall health of the economy and of the society, I maintain.

The Roosevelt Institute has a flurry of articles about this economic distortion, and see their weekly e-mail for even more. Corporate Financialization and Worker Prosperity: A Broken Link, by Lenore Paladino. And at Jacobin magazine in March, 2019, is this promising article, "Democratize Finance, Euthanize the Fossil Fuel Industry."  Sounds promising.  Don't miss it!



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The Mariposa Gazette published the following essay on Climate Change on April 4, 2019.















1
 of 8















7 most terrifying global warming image
McClintock Wrong about Climate Change

Two weeks ago the Gazette carried a column by Congressman McClintock who argued that climate change is not a problem, not a “purported apocalypse.” In contrast to his view the Fourth National Climate Assessment report to Congress of 2017 states in its executive summary, “The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.” 

Atmospheric change is a slow process by human standards. Certain studies predict that the great Himalayan mountain range will be denuded of glaciers by 2100, and the great rivers of that area will create potable and irrigation water shortages, and groundwater aquifers will run dry, and up to 2 billion humans will suffer food shortages. This qualifies as apocalypse. The glacier on Mt. Lyell, ten miles south of Tuolumne Meadows, is now nearly gone due to global warming. And in Mariposa, and the San Joaquin Valley, wells are not recharging as they have before. We’ve had more drought years over the past ten years than non-drought years. The Colorado River Basin has been in drought for 16 years, and Lake Mead and Lake Powell are carrying 40% of their capacity, the lowest level since 1937 when they were filling up. The nine warmest years on record occurred in the past eleven years. And extreme weather events — ranging from polar vortexes to hurricanes, ocean surges, floods, and wildfires — have served to shift public opinion about climate change. Reuters and Gallop polls in the past year record a majority of American adults now believe that human activity is changing the climate and it poses a threat, either serious, imminent or dangerous, to our life style. 

The Union of Concerned Scientists states, “The scientific consensus is clear. Building on two previous studies, a landmark 2013 peer-reviewed study evaluated 10,306 scientists to confirm that over 97 percent climate scientists agree, and over 97 percent of scientific articles find that global warming is real and largely caused by humans. . . . This level of consensus is equivalent to the level of agreement among scientists that smoking causes cancer – a statement that very few people, if any, contest today.” The debate will never be over, but in practical terms, it’s over, and no one’s views are being suppressed. 

Last August the CBS News reported, “‘We have 129 million dead trees from drought and bark beetle infestation,’ said Information Officer Scott McLean of CAL FIRE, the state's lead department fighting these explosive blazes, which last year alone cost California 43 lost lives and $13.2 billion in damages. And this year could be even harsher. ‘September and October are historically our worst months,’ McLean warned.

‘You can get in a plane and fly for literally hours over dead forest,’ said Entomologist Diana Six of the University of Montana, who studies the bark beetle. ‘This is massive. Beetle outbreaks have been happening for thousands of years. But this one is estimated to be more than 10 times bigger.’

Climate change also plays a major role: The biggest boost to the bark beetle population has been the change in temperature worldwide. While the planet has warmed ‘only’ 1.5 degrees since 1880, the main enemy of the insect's eggs has been a hard freeze. The temperature on the coldest winter night is now six to seven degrees warmer in many areas of the country than it was 50 years ago, according to a Dartmouth College study.”

Republican Senator Lamar Alexander recently proposed doubling budget of the Office of Science at the Department of Energy, from $6 billion to $12 billion. But the Trump/GOP proposal is to cut $1 billion from the budget. The research would explore renewable energy alternatives, and it is supported by many Democrats. Transitioning from a fossil fuel energy system to a renewable electric system is a massive but necessary undertaking and opportunity. Jon Rynn’s book Manufacturing Green Prosperity is a road map. It is less expensive to move into a renewable future than perish in smoke, fire, and an inundated landscape.  



  






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